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11th Dec 2023 18:56UKDaily Monitor

  • The first estimate of a month-to-month drop in wages in October likely will be revised to a small rise soon...
  • ...but the rising trend has weakened greatly since Q2, and PAYE RTI data point to further near-term weakness.
  • Wage growth will accelerate only slightly in the run-up to April’s NLW hike; the MPC can cut rates in May.

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Keywords for: 13 December 2023 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence