UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
- Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
- Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The PMI output prices balance implies the underlying services CPI is still rising at a 5% annualised pace.
- Take that signal seriously; the balance has reliably captured big service inflation swings in the past.
- Other surveys support the PMI, showing still- elevated wage growth is driving services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- House prices have continued to recover over the winter, but sales instructions are also rising alongside demand.
- Affordability will remain a key barrier for many would-be buyers this year.
- We will need to revise up our forecast for a 5% rise in prices between Q1 and Q4 if Mr. Hunt cuts stamp duty.
Samuel TombsUK
- The effective rate on the stock of mortgages likely will rise by about 50bp this year, less than 2023’s 86bp increase...
- ...Fewer households have to refinance in 2024, and the rate increase for those that do will be much smaller.
- The household debt-to-income ratio has fallen to just 122%, well below its 2015-to-2019 average, 135%.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data point to GDP rising 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1; firms expect the upturn to gather momentum ahead.
- The services employment index exceeds its 1998-to-2019 average, bringing the risk of labour market re-tightening.
- The recovery, however, has been supported by expectations of falling rates; the MPC needs to deliver some cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in 2023/24 is set to undershoot the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast by about £10B.
- The OBR will revise down its forecast for debt interest payments in 2024/25 by around £14B...
- ...enabling Mr. Hunt to cut taxes materially without risking markets’ ire with higher debt issuance projections.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC will see labour market data for April, showing the impact of the NLW hike on wages, if it waits until June.
- The MPC also will have two more CPI reports to hand if it waits until June; both likely will show sub-2% inflation.
- Most Committee members would rather wait too long than cut prematurely; the cost of waiting should be low.
Samuel TombsUK
- The response rate to the Labour Force Survey of households remained low in Q4, despite reforms.
- The response rate for the “TLFS”, which is set to replace the LFS in September, is only slightly higher.
- The response rates for the business surveys used for the GDP and wages figures, however, remain high.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC won’t put much weight on news GDP fell again in Q4, not least due to the upward bias in revisions.
- The downside surprise in GDP relative to the MPC’s forecast was largely due to real government expenditure.
- Surveys of business and consumer confidence have strengthened into 2024; expect GDP to rise again in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Headline CPI inflation and services CPI inflation both undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in January.
- Sharp falls in accommodation prices and airfares helped but the underlying rate of services price rises also eased.
- The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- The fall in the LFS measure of unemployment in H2 is inconsistent with indicators of improving staff availability.
- The risk of non-response bias is very high; just 15% of approached households participated in the LFS in Q4.
- Ex-bonus wages rose 4.0% month-to-month annual- ised in December, but revisions might alter the picture.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a below-consensus 1.3% month-to-month rise in January retail sales...
- ...Surveys were very weak, and December’s sharp drop might be revised smaller, reducing scope for a rebound.
- Sticky energy payments might explain some of the gap between rising real disposable income and spending.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most labour demand indicators have weakened a bit further, so employee numbers were likely flat in January.
- LFS data remain of poor quality; the unemployment rate is probably slightly higher than the current data suggest.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in ex-bonus AWE in December, still inconsistent with the inflation target.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think GDP dropped by 0.3% month-to-month in December, contributing to a 0.1% quarter-to-quarter fall.
- Stormy weather likely disrupted construction output; strikes weighed on output in the health sector.
- News of a mild recession, however, won’t take the MPC’s attention away from the risk of ingrained high inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December, mainly due to base effects.
- BRC data point to a plunge in core goods CPI inflation, though the relatively early Index Day will limit the decline.
- The MPC expects the headline rate to rise slightly, but the scale of the jump in services inflation will surprise it.
Samuel TombsUK
- The ONS now estimates the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November, from 4.2% in August...
- ...But it still hasn’t addressed the collapse in the LFS response rate; other data point to rising unemployment.
- Hidden slack also increased in H2; the number of inactive people wanting work rose, while average hours fell.
Samuel TombsUK
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Samuel TombsUK
- New population estimates will likely raise the Chancellor’s room for tax cuts by £5B-to-£10B.
- The ONS has raised its forecast for growth in the working age population to 1.0% y/y over 2023-2029, from 0.6%.
- We think the OBR will respond by lifting its forecast for year-over-year growth in potential GDP by about 0.1pp.
Samuel TombsUK
- The pick-up in liquid assets despite meagre net borrowing implies households chose to save more in late 2023.
- Savings in real terms might still be below trend, but they are better distributed among households than a year ago.
- Lower mortgage rates have triggered only a small rise in approvals to date, but they will continue to recover in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Energy’s weight in the CPI will likely decline in 2024, limiting the impact of falling prices on the headline rate.
- On net, weight changes will have a downward influence on the headline rate of inflation in January of about 8bp...
- ...But will then raise the path from April, albeit by no more than 20bp in any one month in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
