Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Samuel Tombs

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, April 2024

  • In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2024

  • In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March 2024

  • In one line: Fractionally weaker PMI still signals solid recovery and growth beating MPC forecasts.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, January 2024

  • In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2024

  • In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2024

  • In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.  

Samuel TombsUK

1 March 2024 UK Monitor Household finances in a position to fund consumption growth

  • The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
  • Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
  • Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.

Samuel TombsUK

29 February 2024 UK Monitor PMI gives reliable signal of stubbornly high services CPI inflation

  • The PMI output prices balance implies the underlying services CPI is still rising at a 5% annualised pace.
  • Take that signal seriously; the balance has reliably captured big service inflation swings in the past.
  • Other surveys support the PMI, showing still- elevated wage growth is driving services inflation.

Samuel TombsUK

28 February 2024 UK Monitor House prices have turned the corner, but rip-roaring gains are unlikely

  • House prices have continued to recover over the winter, but sales instructions are also rising alongside demand.
  • Affordability will remain a key barrier for many would-be buyers this year.
  • We will need to revise up our forecast for a 5% rise in prices between Q1 and Q4 if Mr. Hunt cuts stamp duty.

Samuel TombsUK

27 February 2024 UK Monitor Mortgage Refinancing Headwind to Lessen, Despite the Rise in New Rates

  • The effective rate on the stock of mortgages likely will rise by about 50bp this year, less than 2023’s 86bp increase...
  • ...Fewer households have to refinance in 2024, and the rate increase for those that do will be much smaller.
  • The household debt-to-income ratio has fallen to just 122%, well below its 2015-to-2019 average, 135%.

Samuel TombsUK

February 2023 - U.K. Chartbook



Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, February 2024

  • In one line: Forget the small drop; improving real wage growth will keep confidence rising.

Samuel TombsUK

26 February 2024 UK Monitor Services £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances

  • We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
  • The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
  • Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February 2024

  • In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, January 2024

  • In one line: Borrowing in 2023/24 set to undershoot the OBR’s forecast by £10B, despite January’s smaller-than-expected surplus.

Samuel TombsUK

23 February 2024 UK Monitor February PMI data challenge the case for multiple rate cuts this year

  • PMI data point to GDP rising 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1; firms expect the upturn to gather momentum ahead.
  • The services employment index exceeds its 1998-to-2019 average, bringing the risk of labour market re-tightening.
  • The recovery, however, has been supported by expectations of falling rates; the MPC needs to deliver some cuts.

Samuel TombsUK

February 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch



Samuel TombsUK

22 February 2024 UK Monitor Latest public finance figures leave the door open to Budget tax cuts

  • Public borrowing in 2023/24 is set to undershoot the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast by about £10B.
  • The OBR will revise down its forecast for debt interest payments in 2024/25 by around £14B...
  • ...enabling Mr. Hunt to cut taxes materially without risking markets’ ire with higher debt issuance projections.

Samuel TombsUK

21 February 2024 UK Monitor Pushing back our forecast for the first rate cut to June, from May

  • The MPC will see labour market data for April, showing the impact of the NLW hike on wages, if it waits until June.
  • The MPC also will have two more CPI reports to hand if it waits until June; both likely will show sub-2% inflation.
  • Most Committee members would rather wait too long than cut prematurely; the cost of waiting should be low.

Samuel TombsUK

20 February 2024 UK Monitor Which key ONS surveys have become afflicted by a low response rate?

  • The response rate to the Labour Force Survey of households remained low in Q4, despite reforms.
  • The response rate for the “TLFS”, which is set to replace the LFS in September, is only slightly higher.
  • The response rates for the business surveys used for the GDP and wages figures, however, remain high.

Samuel TombsUK

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U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,