UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Payroll falls will ease as tax hike hit begins to fade.
- The strongest September car sales in five years indicate signs of life in the consumer.
- September’s REC survey points to easing payroll falls, so we look for an 8K month-to-month drop.
- We doubt graduate recruitment will drag much on payroll growth in September.
- In one line: Budget uncertainty will keep housing market weak until November.
- We expect the OBR to lower potential GDP growth by 0.1pp per year in the November Budget forecasts.
- Only a small downgrade is needed after payroll-based productivity growth far exceeded OBR forecasts.
- The fiscal watchdog should also avoid becoming unduly pessimistic about a hard-to-forecast variable.
- In one line: The PMI has been a poor construction indicator lately, official output will probably hold up.
- In one line: Strongest September car sales for three years bodes well for GDP.
- We expect the ONS to publish an initial estimate of an 8K month-to-month payrolls fall in September.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.7%, suggesting the labour market is loosening only slowly.
- We look for a strong 0.4% month-to-month gain in private sector ex-bonus AWE in August.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 4.0%, almost rounding to 4.1%, in September, from 3.8% in August.
- A motor fuels base effect will add 10bp to inflation compared to August, and core CPI another 14bp.
- The BRC Shop Price Index points to a jump in clothes inflation, while used-car price inflation picked up.
- In one line: Dovish as activity growth slows, price pressures ease and margins are squeezed, but Q3 average PMI was OK.
- In one line: Employment falls fail to open spare capacity so wage and price pressures remain stubbornly too high.
HOUSE PRICES DROP IN JULY...
- ...AND BUDGET UNCERTAINTY TO DRAG ON ACTIVITY IN H2
- September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
- GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
- Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.
BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
- In one line: Manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of the year.
- In one line: House prices jump in September but we look for a subdued second half of the year.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- In one line: The PMI cools in September but growth will still run at a healthy pace in Q3.
- In one line: Growth still reliant on government, but business investment growing through the H1 headwinds is an encouraging sign.
- In one line: Confident consumers and rising corporate credit flow signal healthy GDP growth.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
