UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
- We now expect a rate cut in April, compared to March previously, after another surge in commodity prices.
- Our forecast today is a holding position as we wait to see where gas prices settle at the end of the week.
- The Chancellor boosted her headroom in the Spring Statement, but bigger challenges await in the autumn.
- Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
- The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
- But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
- The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
- Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
- ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.
- A dovish five-to-four MPC vote to hold rates alongside changes to guidance signal a March rate cut.
- The MPC slashed its two-year-ahead inflation projection by 30bp, justifying two rate cuts this year.
- We shift our call to a March rate cut, from April before, but think sticky pay will stop the MPC easing again.
- The January PMI hit an 18-month high, consistent with 0.3-to-0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1.
- Jobs continue to fall, according to the PMI, as the payroll-tax hike forces firms to cut back.
- But falling jobs are structural; PMI price balances were broadly steady above inflation-target-consistent levels.
POST-BUDGET REBOUND AND STICKY PAY GROWTH...
- …SO THE MPC CAN CUT RATES JUST ONCE THIS YEAR
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
- The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
- Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.
