Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: BCCh Rate Decision, Chile, June, 2024

  • In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Reform, turmoil, and resilience tested

  • Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
  • Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
  • Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds

  • Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
  • The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
  • Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's central bank defies expectations, keeping rates on hold

  • The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
  • Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
  • Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Mr. Milei's turbulent first six months; Brazil's retail sales remain resilient

  • A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
  • The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
  • Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Global and domestic political uncertainty continue to drive markets

  • Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
  • Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
  • Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, April, 2024

  • In one line: Manufacturing remains under strain and the near-term outlook is difficult.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, May, 2024

  • In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation battle complicated by floods and fiscal pressures

  • Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
  • The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
  • Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's external accounts showing resilience amid global headwinds

  • Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
  • …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
  • Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Chile, May, 2024

  • In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, May, 2024

  • In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Inflation dynamics in Mexico-Chile: easing pressures and upside risks

  • Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
  • Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
  • Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, April, 2024

  • In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
    prevailing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 June 2024 LatAm Monitor MXN steadies, but risks remain; Brazil's industry still under strain

  • The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
  • A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
  • The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Political noise and the Fed remain the key drivers

  • Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
  • Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
  • Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

  • Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
  • High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
  • Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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