Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, once again, by far.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets by keeping rates on hold but reducing reserve requirements.
- Chile’s inflation surged in February, due to the CLP sell-off, posing challenges for the BCCh.
- Risks and uncertainty loom as the CLP faces depreciation pressures due to the unattractive carry.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The swift decline in inflation in Mexico paves the way for a potential interest rate reduction this month.
- Services inflation remains sticky, but softening economic activity indicates an upcoming downtrend.
- Brazil’s industry had a bad start to 2024, but leading indicators point to brighter conditions on the horizon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but the outlook is improving.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stability amid uncertainty
- Chilean Peso — Unattractive carry trade is hurting
- Peruvian New Sol — Leading the EM pack amid challenges
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The Mexican presidential election campaign officially kicks off after nine months of preparations.
- The incumbent party’s candidate continues to lead the polls, as the economy is still faring relatively well.
- Sheinbaum’s “next phase of transformation” focuses on infrastructure, social aid and renewables.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy began the year strongly, yet it is premature to claim success.
- Further rate cuts are needed due to the weakening job market and the continued strain on capex.
- Peru’s favourable disinflation story faced a setback in February, but this will not hinder future rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic recovery stalled in H2, after an impressive performance in previous quarters.
- Falling private consumption, due to tight financing conditions, has put the economy under strain.
- Bold rate cuts are still needed, assuming an improvement in external conditions and a better fiscal outlook.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...
- ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Mexico, and the near-term outlook remains benign according to survey data.
- The Q4 GDP report confirms activity was under pressure, due to a range of domestic and external drags.
- Tighter financial conditions are the main issue, but the numbers allow Banxico to start cutting in March.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Protests against AMLO, but…
- Colombia — Superpowers for President Petro?
- Peru — Cabinet changes to present a new image
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Data to be released in coming days will likely confirm that the Mexican economy struggled in Q4.
- If core disinflation continues as we expect, Banxico will start to cut rates next month.
- Argentina’s economy is under pressure, but some good news is emerging, particularly on fiscal issues.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- December’s IBC-Br confirmed that activity in Brazil ended Q4 strongly, but with some caveats.
- Still-elevated real rates are holding back the upturn in private consumption; COPOM will have to cut more.
- Peru had a poor end to the year, but low inflation and looser monetary conditions will support growth in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy managed to muddle through in Q4, thanks to the revival in consumption and capex.
- Leading indicators point to a better H1, though the recovery will remain subpar by previous standards.
- Tight financial conditions and still-elevated political/ policy uncertainty will limit the rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Sluggish start to the year as headwinds bite
- Mexico — Inflation, Banxico and the Fed
- Colombia — Reduced political risk is a boost, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial production growth in Mexico slowed sharply towards the end of last year.
- Some leading indicators point to still-difficult times ahead; external conditions will remain a drag in H1.
- The miserable inflation story continues in Argentina but is finally showing signs of improvement, just.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation in Colombia is paving the way for bigger rate cuts from a still-cautious BanRep.
- The effect of El Niño and the large minimum wage increase will be offset by sluggish domestic demand.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend, thanks to the COP’s resilience, lower inflation and interest rates.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
