Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil — Sluggish start to the year as headwinds bite
- Mexico — Inflation, Banxico and the Fed
- Colombia — Reduced political risk is a boost, for now
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Industrial production growth in Mexico slowed sharply towards the end of last year.
- Some leading indicators point to still-difficult times ahead; external conditions will remain a drag in H1.
- The miserable inflation story continues in Argentina but is finally showing signs of improvement, just.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation in Colombia is paving the way for bigger rate cuts from a still-cautious BanRep.
- The effect of El Niño and the large minimum wage increase will be offset by sluggish domestic demand.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend, thanks to the COP’s resilience, lower inflation and interest rates.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by the usual 25bp to 6.25%, as inflation continues to fall rapidly.
- The Bank has ample room for manoeuvre, but bolder action is limited for now by the PEN sell-off.
- Sluggish economic growth and challenging external conditions are testing the country’s fiscal resilience.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Incompatible with prior data, but the downtrend is on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The El Niño effect is pushing prices of key foods higher, but core pressures remain under control.
- Brazil’s disinflation is on track, despite the headline number surprising to the upside in January.
- Food prices are also causing trouble in Chile, and methodology changes have led to elevated noise.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, but conditions will likely improve in Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Colombian Peso — Shielded by high carry
- Chilean Peso — Lower carry still the key drag
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector is strengthening, but the devil is in the detail; bold rate cuts are needed.
- The external balance improved substantially last year as exports were resilient and imports struggled.
- The minutes of the last policy meeting point to a cruising speed of 50bp rate cuts in the near term.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh cut the policy rate by 100bp to 7.25%, with one member voting for a bigger reduction.
- The Board increased the pace of easing as inflation is falling rapidly and the economy is struggling.
- The worst for the economy is over, but temporary shocks—including bad weather—remain drags.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Industrial sector ends 2023 on a strong note.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- BanRep delivered a cautious rate cut, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside…
- …But there was unanimity among the Board on the need for further policy normalisation.
- We still think bolder rate cuts are coming, as inflation will start to fall rapidly and activity will falter.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
INFLATION CONTINUES TO FALL AND GROWTH IS SLUGGISH...
- ...ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation is allowing LatAm central banks to normalise monetary policy, but speeds differ.
- Brazil’s COPOM cut rates at a cautious 50bp pace, but we still see room for bolder cuts if the Fed blinks.
- The unemployment rate ended Q4 on a decent footing, but we see a slowdown in job creation in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to the quarter, highlighting the need of further rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
