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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, August, 2025

  • In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.

3 October 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation persists, fiscal weakness deepens

  • Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
  • Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
  • Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.

September 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…

  • …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, August, 2025

  • In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.

2 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Global headwinds keep LatAm markets on edge

  • Brazilian Real —  Gains fade after early rally
  • Mexican Peso —  Resilient, but facing resistance
  • Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds

1 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Argentina nears tipping point as growth slows and risks rise

  • Economic activity in Argentina contracts again as fiscal constraints and political instability weigh…
  • …The US backstop boosts stability, but the October mid-term elections will test the credibility of reforms.
  • A resilient labour market in Brazil masks cooling momentum, with job creation fading.

30 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's current account deficit widens sharply on rising imports

  • Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
  • High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
  • Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.

29 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico eases amid fragile growth, inflation, and trade uncertainty

  • Monetary policy in Mexico is shifting cautiously, as inflation is sticky and growth prospects weaker.
  • The trade deficit widened in August due to the oil sector and tariff-related external uncertainty.
  • MXN appreciation and USMCA compliance support stability, despite ongoing external and fiscal risks.

26 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Disinflation in Brazil to resume soon; Banxico maintains its cautious course

  • Brazil’s inflation is rising modestly in September, reinforcing BCB’s cautious stance.
  • BCB’s report highlighted sticky services inflation, a positive output gap, and delayed rate normalisation.
  • Banxico continues its cautious easing as inflation softens, but fragile growth and external risks persist. 

24 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's fragile recovery stumbles as growth weakens across key sectors

  • Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
  • Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
  • US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.

23 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico keeps cautious easing amid inflation and weak growth

  • Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
  • External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
  • Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.

22 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's recovery gains traction, but fiscal and external risks deepen

  • Services and consumption drive growth in Colombia, but weak exports and capex are still limiting.
  • Fiscal credibility deteriorates as deficits widen, and the Petro government suspends key safeguards.
  • Policy options narrow as inflation expectations rise and political risk builds ahead of the 2026 elections.

19 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Copom holds Selic but normalisation path emerging; Argentina in trouble

  • Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
  • A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
  • Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.

18 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Political turmoil, electoral battles and regional tension

  • Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
  • Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
  • Colombia —  Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote

17 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's industrial output slumps in July; BCRP cuts interest rates

  • Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
  • Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
  • Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.

16 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil economy weakens as tight policy and tariffs weigh heavily

  • Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
  • Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
  • Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.

15 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Political setback in Buenos Aires rattles confidence and amplifies macro risks

  • Markets reeled as political setback exposed fragility in Argentina’s macro backdrop and reform credibility.
  • Inflation is slowing, but ARS pressure, weak activity, and tight reserves complicate policy execution.
  • October elections will test Milei’s mandate and determine the durability of his economic program.

12 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation is slowing, but not yet tamed; Chile's BCCh on hold

  • Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
  • Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
  • BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
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Latin America Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,