Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

22 Jan 2021 The Housing Market Is Starting to Come Off the Boil

We're starting to see signs that the mini-bubble in the housing market is deflating, albeit slowly.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jan 2021 12:10U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

20 Jan 2021 December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

19 Jan 2021 Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

18 Jan 2021 November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

14 Jan 2021 The Lockdown is Working; No Need for Tougher Restrictions

The Lockdown is Working; No Need for Tougher Restrictions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

13 Jan 2021 November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

12 Jan 2021 Why have British Households Spent so much Less than those Abroad?

Why have British Households Spent so much Less than those Abroad?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

8 Jan 2021 The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

7 Jan 2021 Will the Post-Brexit Deal Recovery in U.K. Equity Prices Gather Steam?

The last-minute trade deal signed with the E.U. has put a spring in the s tep of U.K. equities.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

6 Jan 2021 Spring Recovery Contingent on the Pace of Vaccine Rollout

The downturn in economic activity in Q1 is set to be even deeper than we first thought at the start of this week, following the new lockdown announced on Monday...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

5 Jan 2021 Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 06:34U.K.

4 Jan 2021 January GDP Will Sink Below November's Lockdown Level

The emergence of a new strain of Covid-19— B117—which is about 70% more infectious than those before it, has lowered the level of economic activity that is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 06:30U.K.

18 Dec 2020 MPC Signals it Won't Hesitate to Ease Further in the Event of No-Deal

The MPC surprised nobody in voting unanimously this week to keep Bank Rate at 0.10% and to maintain its targets for the stock of government and corporate bond purchases at £875B...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Dec 2020 12:00U.K.

17 Dec 2020 Risks of a 2021 Inflation Overshoot are Low, Absent No-Deal

The decline in CPI inflation to 0.3% in November, from 0.7% in October, likely doesn't represent a shift in the underlying trend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2020 16:10U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 16:10U.K.

15 Dec 2020 MPC Unlikely to Declare a New Lower Bound for Rates This Week

Investors almost certainly are right to price-in only a minuscule chance that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below 0.10% on Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Dec 2020 12:10U.K.

14 Dec 2020 How Far Would Sterling Fall in the Event of No-deal?

Attempting to forecast the likely level of sterling in the event of a no-deal Brexit is more of an art than a science, as it is impossible to know the extent to which this act of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Dec 2020 18:10U.K.

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