Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

25 June 2021 More Upbeat Survey Data in the EZ; Services are Driving the Upturn

Yesterday's national survey data in the core Eurozone economies added to the evidence that services are now driving the recovery.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)25th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

25 June 2021 The Larger PBoC Reverse Repo Injection is Just Housekeeping

The PBoC injected RMB 30B through seven-day reverse repos yesterday, breaking with the more than three-month stretch in which the Bank routinely injected just RMB 10B.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)25th Jun 2021 00:00China+

24 June 2021 EZ GDP Likely Rebounded Solidly in Q2, but Markets Fear Tapering

The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

22 June 2021 No Clear Signal from the Polls in Germany to bet on Bund Volatility

With Mr. Biden recently installed in the Oval office, and the Conservative government in the U.K. not battling for re-election until 2024, the main sources of political risk...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)22nd Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)22nd Jun 2021 00:10China+

21 June 2021 Did the EZ Trade Surplus Really Fall at the Start of Q2

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded at the start of Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

21 June 2021 The BoJ's New Fund-Provisioning Programme will be Different

The Bank made a surprise announcement at its meeting last week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)21st Jun 2021 00:10China+

18 June 2021 A Quiet SNB, and a Guide to the EZ Inflation Data in H2

Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)18th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

17 June 2021 Expect a Quiet SNB Meeting, but Higher CHF Sales Needed Soon

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its powder dry today and leave its policy rate at -0.75%, a number we recommend investors get used to.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)17th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)17th Jun 2021 00:00China+

16 June 2021 Ignore the April Plunge in the EZ Trade Surplus; a Rebound Beckons

Yesterday's euro area trade data from Eurostat were alarmingly poor.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

16 June 2021 The BoJ has Ended QE Already, the Loan Programme will be Extended

The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jun 2021 00:00China+

15 June 2021 A Closer Look at the ECB's New Forecasts; are we too Pessimistic?

In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Jun 2021 00:10China+

14 June 2021 We're Betting on a Further Fall in EZ Unemployment in H2

In any given quarter, the change in the unemployment rate can be derived by the difference between the change in employment and the change in the size of the labour force as a...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:20Eurozone

14 June 2021 What Do China's Emissions Targets Mean for Policy this Year?

Last year President Xi announced a new target for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jun 2021 00:10China+

11 June 2021 If the ECB's New Forecasts are Right, PEPP will be Axed in Q4

The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Jun 2021 00:00China+

10 June 2021 We Expect a Dovish ECB today, but Difficult Decisions Loom in H2

The best way to explain the ECB's position, ahead of today's policy decision, is that the central bank has plenty of circumstantial evidence that a strong recovery has begun,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Jun 2021 00:10Eurozone

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