Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

22 Sept 2021 A New Chancellor in Germany, but Same-Old Murky Coalition Politics

The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote. The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2021 Evergrande: No Big Bailout, but no Lehman Moment, Either

Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets... ...But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment. Beijing can contain...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside. Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains. Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out... ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least. M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.  EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2021 The EZ Industrial Slumber Continues, but Italy is Doing Fine

Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend. Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures. FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data. We...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Sept 2021 A Slight Slowdown in PEPP is Coming in Q4, as Expected

The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month. Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures... ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch. The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 A V-Shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy is Now in Sight

German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat. Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 August's Punchy Trade Likely will Come at the Expense of September

China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July. Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 Sept 2021 Major Orders Flatter Jump in German Manufacturing Demand

The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment. Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2021 The Balance of Evidence Still Points to a Robust Q3 in the EZ

Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better. The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning... ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes. But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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