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The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote. The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition...
Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets... ...But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment. Beijing can contain...
Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and...
A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside. Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the...
Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains. Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch...
China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out... ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the...
The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact,...
M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least. M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the...
EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid. EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP...
Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend. Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less...
Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures. FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data. We...
The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month. Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4...
PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures... ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is...
The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch. The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth...
German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat. Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is...
China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July. Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data...
The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment. Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is...
Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better. The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick...
Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning... ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the...
Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes. But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely...
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