Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

2 Dec 2020 The Recovery in the Andes Continues, but the Virus is a Threat

Chile's IMACEC activity index for October, released yesterday, was well below market expectations, falling by 0.5% month-to-month, following four consecutive gains.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)1st Dec 2020 18:10Latin America

20 Nov 2020 Chile's Growth Rebounded in Q3, but did not Reverse all the Covid Hit

Data released this week confirmed that Q3 real GDP growth in the Andes rebounded sharply, on a sequential basis, as the region's economies gradually reopened.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)19th Nov 2020 18:10Latin America

16 Nov 2020 Brazil's GDP Rebounded in Q3, but a Second Covid Wave is a Real Threat

The economic recovery in Brazil slowed to a sluggish pace in September, with the IBC-BR index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rising by merely 1.3% on a month-to- month basis and...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)15th Nov 2020 18:20Latin America

3 Nov 2020 Mexico's Record Rebound in Q3 GDP Growth will Falter Soon, due to Covid

Mexico's first estimate of third quarter GDP, released last week, confirmed that the economy is still struggling in the face of Covid-related domestic and external headwinds,...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)2nd Nov 2020 18:20Latin America

2 Nov 2020 The Covid Crisis in LatAm is Easing, but the Risk of a Second Wave is Real

While we were out, new Covid-19 cases continued to increase in Brazil and Colombia. The latest uptick in Mexico's cases seems to be peaking, though the data are not reliable,...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)1st Nov 2020 18:20Latin America

12 Oct 2020 Covid-induced Spike in Food Prices Pushes Up Inflation in Brazil and Chile

Inflation data for Brazil and Chile released last week surprised to the upside, but the rebound in September mainly was driven by the effect of the reopening of the economy and...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)10th Oct 2020 19:20Latin America

9 Oct 2020 Brazil's Retailers have Shrugged off the Corona Hit, but Threats Remain

Brazil's retail sector has shrugged off the Covid- related shock and leading indicators suggest that activity will continue to improve over the next few months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)8th Oct 2020 19:10Latin America

21 Sept 2020 Inflation Risks in Argentina are Mounting, Despite the Benign Trend

The Argentinian economic recovery continues, from very depressed levels, and the rebound is confronting many setbacks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)20th Sep 2020 19:20Latin America

18 Sept 2020 COPOM on Hold, the "Likely End of a Long" Monetary Easing Cycle

Recent economic activity, labour market and inflation data all have surprised Brazilian policymakers' expectations, to the upside.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)17th Sep 2020 19:10Latin America

26 Aug 2020 Inflation and External Accounts Remain Under Control in Brazil

Inflation pressures in Brazil are well under control, with the August mid-month reading falling more than expected, allowing the BCB to cut interest rates in the near term if...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)25th Aug 2020 17:20Latin America

25 Aug 2020 Covid Cases are Easing in Mexico Supporting a Soft Economic Upturn

New Covid-19 cases in Mexico have continued to fall steadily over this month, with deaths peaking two weeks ago, as shown in our first chart.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)24th Aug 2020 17:20Latin America

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)6th Aug 2020 19:10Latin America

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)4th Aug 2020 19:10Latin America

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)3rd Aug 2020 19:10Latin America

29 July 2020 Brazil's Improving External Accounts Strengthens the Case for a Rate Cut

Brazil's external accounts remain relatively solid, making it easier for the country to withstand any potential external or domestic threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)28th Jul 2020 19:10Latin America

14 July 2020 The Pandemic is Far from Over in the Andes, Prolonging the Economic Hit

The Johns Hopkins database shows a mixed coronavirus picture in the Andes, with the trend in new cases still rising in Argentina and Colombia, but relatively flat for about the...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)13th Jul 2020 19:20Latin America

8 July 2020 Inflation will Stay Comfortably Low in the Andes Over the Second Half

The rate of increase of Covid-19 new cases in the Andes is still rapid, but it seems to have peaked in recent days in most countries.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)7th Jul 2020 19:10Latin America

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3?

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)6th Jul 2020 19:20Latin America

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