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We are sympathetic to the idea that the prospect of an effective vaccine in H1 2021 incentivises governments and local authorities to tighten the screw more in the near term to...
18th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone
In our last two Monitors we painted the picture of a bright world in which Covid-19 is swiftly vanquished by a vaccine next year. In this Monitor, we'll plant our feet back on...
11th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone
In yesterday's Monitor--see here--we discussed the three main questions for investors in relation to the news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine is now imminent.
10th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone
Yesterday's news that Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine has a 90% effectiveness against the virus is unequivocally good news for the EZ economy, even if its positive impact...
9th Nov 2020 16:10Eurozone
Normally, we wouldn't pin our story on the fact that the PMIs are signalling a risk of outright contraction in the economy, but on this occasion we think the surveys are on...
4th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone
Friday's data deluge delivered uplifting, if backward- looking, news in the EZ economy. Eurostat's advance report showed that GDP jumped by 12.7% quarter-on- quarter in...
1st Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone
On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.
26th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone
The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.
25th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone
Friday's sole economic report added to the evidence that the rebound in EZ manufacturing petered out midway through Q3, even if we still think the German numbers--see...
10th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone
On the surface, the EU's joint stimulus efforts are progressing nicely.
8th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone
Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data for September conformed to our expectations.
23rd Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
A Financial Times report over the weekend--see here--added to the speculation that the ECB is not going to lift the amount of asset purchases pledged under its Pandemic...
21st Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
The return of the virus in the Eurozone isn't what the economy needed, but we continue to think it differs from the first shock, for three key reasons.
14th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.
10th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
Yesterday's German manufacturing data were a damp squib. Industrial production, including construction, rose by 1.2% month-to-month in July, lifting the year- over-year rate...
7th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.
3rd Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone
If we analyse the Covid-19 shock as a normal downturn, the clock has now been reset on the business cycle, which in turn implies that it is a great time to be invested in EZ...
24th Aug 2020 17:30Eurozone
Yesterday's detailed July CPI report ought to have provided the first clear evidence of the effect on euro area inflation from the Covid-19 shock.
19th Aug 2020 17:10Eurozone
Recession, rising unemployment and disinflation remain the main themes for economists in the context of charting the course of the Covid-19 crisis.
18th Aug 2020 17:30Eurozone
Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.
10th Aug 2020 19:10Eurozone
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