Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

19 Nov 2020 Will Covid-19 Lockdowns Cancel Christmas in the Eurozone

We are sympathetic to the idea that the prospect of an effective vaccine in H1 2021 incentivises governments and local authorities to tighten the screw more in the near term to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)18th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone

12 Nov 2020 Virus Cases are Now Falling, but Q4 GDP Won't be Pretty

In our last two Monitors we painted the picture of a bright world in which Covid-19 is swiftly vanquished by a vaccine next year. In this Monitor, we'll plant our feet back on...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone

11 Nov 2020 What Does a Quick Roll-Out of a Vaccine Mean for the Economy

In yesterday's Monitor--see here--we discussed the three main questions for investors in relation to the news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine is now imminent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone

10 Nov 2020 Is this the Beginning of the End of the Covid-19 Nightmare?

Yesterday's news that Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine has a 90% effectiveness against the virus is unequivocally good news for the EZ economy, even if its positive impact...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)9th Nov 2020 16:10Eurozone

5 Nov 2020 Eurozone GDP will Decline in Q4, but by How Much

Normally, we wouldn't pin our story on the fact that the PMIs are signalling a risk of outright contraction in the economy, but on this occasion we think the surveys are on...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)4th Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone

2 Nov 2020 Consensus-Beating Q3 GDP Data are a False Dawn for the EZ

Friday's data deluge delivered uplifting, if backward- looking, news in the EZ economy. Eurostat's advance report showed that GDP jumped by 12.7% quarter-on- quarter in...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)1st Nov 2020 18:10Eurozone

27 Oct 2020 Controlling the Virus will Cost EZ Q4 GDP Growth Dearly

On a headline level, yesterday's IFO in Germany confirmed the main message from last week's PMIs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)26th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone

26 Oct 2020 EZ Q4 GDP Growth Forecasts Fall, the Only Question is, How Much?

The headline EZ data added to the evidence of a weakening recovery while we were away.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)25th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone

12 Oct 2020 The French Aerospace Sector has been Knocked Out by Covid-19

Friday's sole economic report added to the evidence that the rebound in EZ manufacturing petered out midway through Q3, even if we still think the German numbers--see...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone

9 Oct 2020 An Update on EU Fiscal Stimulus, the Recovery Fund Faces Delay

On the surface, the EU's joint stimulus efforts are progressing nicely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Oct 2020 19:10Eurozone

24 Sept 2020 The EZ Recovery is Now Seriously Threatened by the Virus' Return

Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data for September conformed to our expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

22 Sept 2020 Is the ECB Considering Putting the PEPP out to Pasture

A Financial Times report over the weekend--see here--added to the speculation that the ECB is not going to lift the amount of asset purchases pledged under its Pandemic...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

15 Sept 2020 Has the EZ Reached a Ceiling for its Post-Covid-19 Rebound

The return of the virus in the Eurozone isn't what the economy needed, but we continue to think it differs from the first shock, for three key reasons.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)14th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

11 Sept 2020 The ECB Just Raised the Bar for a Boost to PEPP, Significantly

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

8 Sept 2020 Don't Give up Hope of a Rebound in German Manufacturing

Yesterday's German manufacturing data were a damp squib. Industrial production, including construction, rose by 1.2% month-to-month in July, lifting the year- over-year rate...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)7th Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

4 Sep 2020 Did the PMIs Just Put the Recovery in the Euro Area On Notice

Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Sep 2020 19:10Eurozone

25 Aug 2020 Now Should be a Great Time to Own Equities in the Eurozone

If we analyse the Covid-19 shock as a normal downturn, the clock has now been reset on the business cycle, which in turn implies that it is a great time to be invested in EZ...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Aug 2020 17:30Eurozone

20 Aug 2020 All Set for a Big Downside Surprise in the August EZ Inflation Data

Yesterday's detailed July CPI report ought to have provided the first clear evidence of the effect on euro area inflation from the Covid-19 shock.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)19th Aug 2020 17:10Eurozone

19 Aug 2020 An Updated Look at EZ Inflation Expectations, Not Much Going On

Recession, rising unemployment and disinflation remain the main themes for economists in the context of charting the course of the Covid-19 crisis.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)18th Aug 2020 17:30Eurozone

11 Aug 2020 How Worried Should we be Over Spain's Economic Misery

Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Aug 2020 19:10Eurozone

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