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Headline inflation in the EZ likely was a touch stronger than we initially expected in July. Core and headline inflation in Germany is rocketing, mostly due to base effects...
The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well. Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts...
Robust M1 growth points to solid GDP growth in the Eurozone, once the dust settles from reopening. Loan growth is slowing, but that's mainly due to base effects; the underlying...
We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...
The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3. The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3...
The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.
Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...
This is not, on the face of it, the best time to take a step back and look at the prospects for net exports in the Eurozone in a post-Covid world.
Talking about a green energy transition in Europe is easy, but more often than not, actions fall short of promises, for political reasons.
Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...
Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...
Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.
Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.
The ECB is pushing forward with its commitment to incorporate climate change into its policy framework over the next few years.
We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May--see here--and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.
The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.
Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...
The virus is in retreat; now comes the recovery, we hope.
Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.
Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...
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