- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Old news; will January and February inflation be soft enough for a March cut?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: No cuts until inflation is comfortably below target; that is, in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE prices likely rose at the 2% target pace in Q4, matching Q3
- EUROZONE- Eurozone GDP likely fell in Q4, despite a leap in net exports
- U.K.- Will the MPC cut Bank Rate by more than 25bp at one meeting?
- CHINA+ - China’s credit demand softens, as developers repay debt
- EM ASIA - Only a matter of when, not if, Indian food inflation becomes a huge drag
- LATAM - A Busy Week for LatAm Inflation Watchers; All Good, for Now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Exports are improving, but demand still isn’t firing on all fronts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The CPI report has yet to pick-up the correction in onion prices; don’t panic over the Diwali-related crash in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- U.S. - Job Growth is Slowing, but the Fed’s Main Interest is Inflation
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Households’ Saving Rate Won’t Rise Further in 2024; Spending to Recover
- CHINA+ - China’s Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases
- EM ASIA - Downward CPI Surprises in ASEAN, Paving the Way for H1 Rate Cuts
- LATAM - Growth Still Slowing, Helping to Bring Inflation Down Further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: All due to base effects in energy; the downtrend in the core remains intact.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Revised higher, but still consistent with a technical recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to the quarter, despite the strong-looking headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
