In one line: Revised higher, but still consistent with a technical recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: If Mr. Powell is Santa, Ms. Lagarde is the Grinch.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Few signs of a shift in the guidance on rates, yet. QT will accelerate in H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - The FOMC will Push Back Against Talk of Near-Term Easing
- EUROZONE- The ECB Will Lower its Inflation Forecasts This Week, but How Far?
- U.K. - MPC Unlikely to Endorse the Decline in Rate Expectations Just Yet
- CHINA+ - Japan’s Downward GDP Revision Reflects Weak Private Consumption
- EM ASIA - Pushing Our Call for the First RBI Rate Cut to April
- LATAM - Brazil’s GDP Growth Is Weakening, and the Near-Term Outlook Is Dim
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
- EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
- U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
- CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
- EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
- LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Depressed, but the second derivative is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Business Investment Spending Stalled at the Start of Q4
- EUROZONE - Germany’s Economy Is Suffering; a Fiscal Crisis Would Make It Worse
- U.K. - Autumn Statement Tax Cuts Won’t Stop the MPC Cutting Rates Next
- CHINA+ - China’s Economic Rebalancing Strategy Informs Market Direction
- EM ASIA - Fiscal Consolidation in Malaysia’s 2024 Budget Likely Too Optimistic
- LATAM - Will a Stronger-Than-Expected Economy in Q3 Scare Off Banxico?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: French GDP is headed for a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global