In one line: See you in June, for the first rate cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Virtually similar to January, which is now a hawkish line.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Job growth is set to slow in spring, and cyclical job growth could stop
- EUROZONE - Services inflation too hot for an ECB rate cut in April; June it is then
- U.K.- Forecast Review: Sticky wage growth makes MPC cautious to cut
- CHINA+ - China’s Lunar New Year holiday-spending splurge won’t last
- EM ASIA - 8% growth in India unsustainable, with consumption still lacking
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy stagnates in H2; bold rate cuts still needed
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Is the door now shut on an April cut? Probably.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Q: Where is the AI boom in the GDP numbers? A: Fast approaching
- EUROZONE- Inflation to wobble around Easter; PMI implies recovery still coming
- U.K.- £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances
- CHINA+ - BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing
- EM ASIA - Chickens have come home to roost in Thai GDP; what an abysmal Q4
- LATAM - Banxico to act on further evidence of Mexico’s slowdown and disinflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Core inflation remains on track for 2% by summer, but beware Easter effects in March and April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Most of last week’s numbers tell us little about trends, or the outlook
- EUROZONE- Is the Eurozone falling behind the US on productivity, again?
- U.K.- Underlying Services Price Rises Still Slowing, Bolstering Rate Cut Hopes
- CHINA+ - China’s big five-year LPR cut signals focus on boosting home demand
- EM ASIA - Subianto’s decisive victory a short-term positive for continuity
- LATAM - December’s IBC-Br confirms activity in Brazil ended Q4 on a strong note
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Fiscal policy is likely to be a headwind for growth this year
- EUROZONE- Up close and personal with the seasonally adjusted EZ HICP data
- U.K.- Services CPI inflation likely rose above the MPC’s forecast in January
- CHINA+ - Chinese pricing trends signal weak activity; ignore the holiday noise
- EM ASIA - Vehicle sales boost to Singaporean retail sales set to unwind in January
- LATAM - Finally, Banxico explicitly signals rate cuts; normalisation to start in March
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Whatever the truth about January jobs, the outlook for spring is weaker
- EUROZONE- Presenting the EZ bond market in 2024, assuming a soft landing
- U.K.- Multiple rate cuts this year signalled, but not as many as investors expect
- CHINA+ - Korea trade en route to a healthy recovery on strong WDA growth
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ consensus-beating Q4 benefited hugely from soft cushions
- LATAM - Central banks embrace policy normalisation, but with some caveats
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Not enough for a rate cut in March; but April is still on.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Inflation is tamed, and that matters more to the Fed than strong growth
- EUROZONE- GDP data support a dovish shift from the ECB; Spanish CPI not so much
- U.K.- MPC likely to split the difference with the market
- CHINA+ - China’s RRR cut is about accommodating fiscal stimulus
- EM ASIA - Reassuring early Q1 PMIs in India
- LATAM - A busy but relatively straightforward week for LatAm central banks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - The Fed wants to ease slowly, but their forecasts are too cautious
- EUROZONE- ECB to push back against market expectations this week
- U.K.- Consumer price rises still fading quickly enough for a May rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s property sector still looking for the light at the end of the tunnel
- EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP to pick up in 2024 on manufacturing sector rebound
- LATAM - Brazil’s retail sector resilient in Q4, thanks to Black Friday
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Old news; will January and February inflation be soft enough for a March cut?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE prices likely rose at the 2% target pace in Q4, matching Q3
- EUROZONE- Eurozone GDP likely fell in Q4, despite a leap in net exports
- U.K.- Will the MPC cut Bank Rate by more than 25bp at one meeting?
- CHINA+ - China’s credit demand softens, as developers repay debt
- EM ASIA - Only a matter of when, not if, Indian food inflation becomes a huge drag
- LATAM - A Busy Week for LatAm Inflation Watchers; All Good, for Now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Job Growth is Slowing, but the Fed’s Main Interest is Inflation
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Households’ Saving Rate Won’t Rise Further in 2024; Spending to Recover
- CHINA+ - China’s Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases
- EM ASIA - Downward CPI Surprises in ASEAN, Paving the Way for H1 Rate Cuts
- LATAM - Growth Still Slowing, Helping to Bring Inflation Down Further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: All due to base effects in energy; the downtrend in the core remains intact.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Revised higher, but still consistent with a technical recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
