- In one line: A strong—but dumb—policy response.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Slowing incomes and a rising saving rate threaten consumption
- EUROZONE - A decade covering the EZ; what have we learnt, and what’s next?
- UK - Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volaility
- CHINA+ - China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM ASIA - Malaysian manufacturing growth will only pick up further from Q1
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Things are suddenly turning up for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US The core PCE deflator for March likely will scrape in just below 0.3%
- Eurozone Hunting for early Easter effects in the German and French CPIs
- UK Bernanke Review a missed opportunity for the BoE
- China+ China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM Asia Singaporean manufacturing on a gradual recovery path, at best
- LATAM Broadening disinflation paves way for bold COPOM rate cut in May
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Resuming rate cuts but keeping a cautious bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Daily Monitor
- In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- U.S. - No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different
- EUROZONE - All set for a dovish hold by the ECB this week; rates will be cut in June
U.K.- Forecast Review: MPC has the confidence to cut, gradually
- CHINA+ - BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures
- EM ASIA - Singaporean retail sales growth spikes in February on festive demand
- LATAM - Will Brazil’s industrial sector improve after a poor start to 2024?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global