2 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026

• Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
• ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
• In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, October 2025

In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

1 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor A jump in Germany's HICP keeps the EZ at 2.2% in November

• A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
• …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
• EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.