Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Growth in German goods exports will soon hit zero on a year-over-year basis.
- German imports from Russia have collapsed, and they're not coming back anytime soon.
- Real net exports in Germany likely rose again in the first quarter, lifting GDP growth by 0.1pp.
In one line: Net exports in goods likely rose again in Q1.
In one line: The supply-side shock is over; output is rebounding, slowly.
- A U.S. recession means slower GDP growth in the euro area and a terminal ECB rate in May.
- We now see a smaller EZ GDP growth boost from net trade in the first half of 2023.
- The ECB will raise rates by 50bp in May, but by June the survey data should be poor enough for a pause.
- EZ energy inflation plunged in March, but the core rate hit a new high, due to firming services inflation.
- The fall in EZ non-energy goods inflation in March was a relief; it has limited the upside in core inflation.
- We still think the ECB will hike by 50bp in May, but the April data could easily persuade it to do 25bp.