In one line: Not as good as the headline would suggest.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further increases likely over the coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
- Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.
- We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise.
- Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more.
- We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023!
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
- The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
- Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: If Mr. Powell is Santa, Ms. Lagarde is the Grinch.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Few signs of a shift in the guidance on rates, yet. QT will accelerate in H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB lowered its inflation forecast in December; they will come down further in March, by a lot.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against our forecast for a March cut, but we think she’ll come around.
- The SNB stands pat, but sends a clear signal that it is now done raising rates; will it cut in March?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German politicians agreed to cut spending to stick to the constitutional debt brake...
- ...But it looks like a stop-gap solution to us, and fractures within the coalition will likely widen from here.
- EU fiscal rules return next year; in what form remains to be seen, but they will be laxer than before.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
