Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- The ECB will keep rates and the pace of QT unchanged this week; all eyes on the new forecasts.
- We think the ECB will lower its 2024 inflation forecast by 0.5pp, to 2.7%, and we look for 2.0% in 2026.
- The consensus now expects the first ECB rate cut in June next year; we still believe March is a good bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial production remains on track for a decline in Q4.
- Manufacturing employment is now falling steadily; will it pull the broader labour market down?
- It’s early days, but we’re starting to feel excited about better-looking manufacturing surveys in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German GDP fell in Q3, and we look for a further decline in Q4, pushing the economy into recession.
- Real disposable income growth remains weak; we still think it will improve next year as inflation eases.
- The fiscal impasse will be resolved, eventually, but a near-term hit to growth is now likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the EZ is falling quickly, and the threat from a rebound in energy inflation is receding.
- Core inflation remains on track to undershoot the ECB’s September forecasts, especially in Q1.
- Sticky wages is a risk to our call for easing early next year, but the path to a March cut is still clear.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP will probably fall in Q4, even if revisions don’t show it declined in the third quarter.
- Budget negotiations are heating up; BTP yields will stay high next year despite a likely fall in spreads.
- Spain may end the year with a government after all, but this won’t change the economic outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ unemployment rate will rise further, but prob- ably not enough to sway ECB hawks...
- ...Still, we think the Bank will cut rates come March, as inflation likely will fall faster than it expects.
- Unemployment will rise most in industry, which will stay in recession until global trade recovers.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
