EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, September 2023

In one line: Confirming that net exports were a drag on GDP in Q3. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Revising Down Our Call for EZ Consumption in Q4

• Retail sales slid in each month in Q3, making it a quarter to forget for the sector.
• Services spending rose in August, picking up the slack; surveys suggest it won’t do so again in Q4.
• We are revising down our consumption call for Q4 and therefore now look for a shallow EZ recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, September 2023

In one line: Not enough to prevent a quarterly fall in Q3 overall. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Ouch!

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Will EZ Joblessness Rise Enough to Depress Wages?

• The EZ unemployment rate will rise further, but prob- ably not enough to sway ECB hawks...
• ...Still, we think the Bank will cut rates come March, as inflation likely will fall faster than it expects.
• Unemployment will rise most in industry, which will stay in recession until global trade recovers.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, September 2023

In one line: More increases are coming.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, September 2023

In one line: French industry stuttered at the end of Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Slide in Swiss Inflation Stalls but More SNB Hikes are Unnecessary

• The slide in Swiss inflation appears to have stalled but we do not think the SNB needs to panic-hike.
• GDP in Switzerland likely fell in Q3—following in Ger- many’s footsteps—and likely will decline again in Q4.
• The election outcome means we should expect “more of the same” on the Swiss fiscal front.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: No end in sight for the recession in EZ manufacturing. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote:Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2023

In one line: Avoided a technical recession, just. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone