- Retail sales in the EZ tanked in August, held back by French and German sales, and likely fell in Q3...
- ...Services spending probably held up better but still rose by less than in Q2...
- ...We are revising down our call for consumer spending and look for a bigger fall in EZ GDP in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices in the EZ fell outright in Q2, in year- over-year terms; more is coming...
- ...Our housing model points to a 6% decline in house prices this year compared to 2022.
- Swiss inflation edged up in September, but we doubt by enough to convince the SNB to hike further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The number of people out of work in the EZ fell sharply in August; this is likely to reverse soon...
- ...But a GDP-based unemployment model points to just a small increase in the unemployment rate.
- Similar to the downturn more generally, weakness will be concentrated in the manufacturing sector.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The jobless rate will edge up from here.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Manufacturing output was still falling at the end of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The ECB’s 2024 core inflation forecasts will come down in Q4, a lot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The unemployment rate will rise soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core inflation fell further; Q3 spending lifted by a leap in auto sales?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Where is the rebound in consumption?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ headline and core inflation surprised to the downside in September; both will fall further in Q4.
- Accelerated disinflation in core goods means we’re reducing our 2024 core CPI forecast by 0.2pp.
- Our forecasts for 2024 now differ materially from the ECB’s; the Bank will have to adjust in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone