- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not as good as the headline would suggest.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further increases likely over the coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a more sustained climb?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023!
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Exaggerated by an Irish drop, but still not good news.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
- ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
- ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still struggling at the start of Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
- ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
- BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
