Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
- We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment.
- Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock.
- Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
- Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
- The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
- Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.
- Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
- Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
- EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.
- Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April.
- The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down.
- Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.
- Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help.
- Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand.
- Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
