Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: New orders stung by surge in input prices.
In one line: Strong gain in core orders.
In one line: Downside risks are widening for Q2.
- France is set to swing right in the 2027 presidential election, but that’s not strictly good news for RN.
- Big declines in energy consumption and output due to mild weather likely stung French growth in Q1.
- French tax revenues ended 2025 on a high, bringing much relief to the embattled minority government.
In one line: The stagflation shock is underway.
In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom.
In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy.
In one line: Slowing before the energy shock.
- Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in March, and will rise further in coming months, to 3%.
- We now see higher food inflation adding 0.1pp and 0.2pp to the EZ HICP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
- Risks are tilted towards an April hike, but we still think the ECB will wait until June.
In one line: Up and away, and more gains are coming.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …FORCING THE ECB TO RESPOND WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR, AT LEAST
In one line: A hawkish signal for the ECB.
- German inflation soared in March, as energy prices jumped; core inflation was stable.
- We now see EZ headline inflation at 2.6% in March, with the core dipping by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- EC selling prices and consumers’ inflation outlook jumped in March, tilting hawkishly for the ECB.
In one line: German inflation on track to overshoot the consensus today, slightly.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in March, but by less than expected due to timely tax cuts by the government.
- We see EZ headline and core inflation at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, in March; it will get worse soon.
- Comments from policymakers suggest the ECB is inching towards an April hike.
In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth.
In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth.
In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations.
- March survey data show clear evidence of weakness from the war in Iran, but markets don’t care.
- Real M1 growth was still robust midway through Q1, but now comes the hit from rising inflation.
- Italian business confidence was resilient in March, but consumer sentiment is plunging.
