Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Gabriella Dickens
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again.
In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.
