Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

11 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium

  • US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP… 
  • …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex. 
  • The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Output stung by falling auto production; exports finish 2024 on a strong note.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB policymakers will struggle to stay neutral on neutral

  • Attempts by the ECB to persuade markets to give up focusing on the neutral rate are laudable, but futile.
  • The ECB’s own forecasts suggest that the policy rate should stabilise at neutral, wherever that is.
  • EZ industrial production fell sharply in December, but we look for a solid rebound in January.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Signs of underlying strength, despite boost from major orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor News of a crash in 2025 EZ wage growth is greatly exaggerated

  • Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ. 
  • The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat. 
  • ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor A 10pp hike in US tariffs on EU imports priced in by EURUSD

  • President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air. 
  • A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3. 
  • EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment & State CPIs, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2024

In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Risks tilted slightly to the downside for EZ headline inflation today

  • We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
  • Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
  • Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q4 2024; Unemployment, EZ, December 2024; ESI, EZ, January 2025

In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q4-24

In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB can't dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer

  • The ECB eased policy further, as expected, but it is now likely closer to neutral than markets think. 
  • EZ GDP stagnated in Q4, held back by declines in the two largest economies, Germany and France. 
  • The first national inflation figures for January lead us to raise our call for EZ core inflation, due out today.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: Ignore headline fall; M1 growth is still accelerating.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Poor, but far from conclusive for consumption growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

January 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...

  • ...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,