19 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide

• The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures. 
• Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June. 
• We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2. 

EZ Datanote: GDP (2nd Est.), Employment & Industrial Production, EZ, Q2/June 2025

In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, July 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a low level.  

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Stabilisation. 

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, June 2025

In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, June 2025

In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Ugly all round.  

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a record low. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.