Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: Old news; net trade will be a drag on growth this year. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 February 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is the Eurozone falling behind the US on productivity, again?

  • EZ GDP growth is falling behind the US; relatively sluggish productivity is part of the reason.
  • The inflation shock has depressed EZ labour productivity, but it should now be rebounding.
  • Our interest rate forecasts are consistent with a relative shift in the EZ inflation and policy regime.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 February 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a slow rebound in EZ GDP growth in the first half of 2024?

  • Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, and we doubt the picture will improve in the first quarter.
  • Investment will remain under pressure in H1, but consumers’ spending should now be rebounding.
  • EZ employment growth is still outpacing the surveys; unemployment is pinned at a record low.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 February 2024 Eurozone Monitor All the love for an early Swiss rate cut from the January CPI data

  • Swiss inflation fell sharply in January, beneath our below-consensus forecast...
  • ...We are sticking to our call that the SNB will first cut its key policy rate in March, by 25bp to 1.50%.
  • It will likely follow this up with 75bp-worth of cuts, split between 50bp in June and 25bp in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, December 2023

In one line: Suggests increase in GDP in Q4 will be revised down, but outlook is turning.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 February 2024 Eurozone Monitor A rebound in quarterly GDP growth will not prevent SNB rate cuts

  • Swiss GDP likely fell in Q4 last year; it will recover this year as real disposable income growth rebounds. 
  •  But base effects mean GDP growth will slow to 0.7% this year, from 1.2% last year. 
  •  Inflation will stay low, the SNB will match ECB cuts to starve off CHF appreciation. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Ugly; recession in industry will continue this quarter.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, December 2023

In one line:  Output still rose in Q4, unlike in Germany and France. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: : Still pointing to a further increase in the PMI. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, January

In one line: Still consistent with our EZ call; all eyes on Germany later.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q4 2023

In one line: Better than expected but was it enough to prevent a decline in EZ GDP?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence