In one line: Industrial output will be revised up; net trade was a drag on GDP growth in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, or did it? We are not so sure.
- Green shoots in leading indicators for German capex, but an inventory overhang still looms in H2.
- German exports remain stuck in the mud, and US tariffs add further downside risk in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too.
- EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting.
- EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index.
- Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany.
- French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
- …But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
- A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
- The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
- EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
