In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but not enough to prevent a poor Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Near-term inflation expectations are easing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Another big increase in Spanish GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
EZ ECONOMY SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF TARIFF THREATS…
- …SUB-2% SUMMER INFLATION WILL GET A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT OVER THE LINE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The US-EU trade deal is a decent outcome for the EZ economy, but it will sting politically in Brussels.
- A relatively small 1% fall in Irish Q2 GDP points to upside risk to this week’s EZ GDP growth print.
- The probability of a September rate cut will increase this week if our July inflation forecasts prove right.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Temporary slowdown in M1, we hope, resilient IFO and ISTAT surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unemployment fears fall slightly, but saving intentions rise further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ money supply growth slowed in June, but the trend is solid and the credit impulse improved again.
- IFO expectations in Germany are rising across almost all sectors; is a cyclical upturn underway?
- French consumer confidence rose marginally in July, but Italy’s IESI was held back by services weakness.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Income expectations are firming, but so are saving intentions.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
