Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
- Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
- The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.
The 2025 upswing in India's PMIs has stalled
SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST
- …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN
- In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.
- In one line: A minor setback; positive momentum still rebuilding.
- BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
- Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
- India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.
- Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth shocked to the upside, powered by a rebound in mining and quarrying...
- ...But weak commodity exports suggest stockpiling or soaring domestic energy demand.
- Electrical and electronics exports are heating up, which could point to a rise in the Q4 GDP print.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.
- In one line: Flirting with outright deflation, which looks likely in the next two reports.
- India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
- …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
- We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
- In one line: Food & beverage deflation is back, and will likely deepen this month.
- Export growth in Taiwan missed expectations, but it moderated only slightly and is still historically high.
- Strong quarter-to-quarter export growth points to a solid overall Q3 GDP growth print.
- Inflation is declining again, despite the recent typhoons, underpinned by falling crude oil prices.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… we weren’t at the “sweet spot” after all.
Q3 is shaping up to be fairly decent for Indonesian retail sales
- The BSP surprised yesterday with another 25bp cut to its policy rate, as it rejigged its growth views…
- …But the weakness in business confidence has been in play for a while; we now see two more cuts.
- Indonesian retail sales growth is starting to revive more noticeably, but headwinds are intensifying.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.
- The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
- The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
- …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.
Philippine sales still sliding, but a few green shoots are emerging
Soft… keeping the door wide open for at least one more BSP cut this quarter
- Sales growth in the Philippines fell to a 10-month low, but the survey data are improving at least…
- …We’ve cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts to 1.7% and 2.4%; no momentum in food prices.
- Downside risks are mounting to our already below- consensus 2025-to-26 CPI forecasts for Thailand.
