Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Initial signs of a squeeze from the war fallout.
A broadly constructive deterioration of the Philippines' trade balance in Q1
- In one line: The war has been ‘good’ for the MPC’s policy space.
EARLY Q1 GDP NUMBERS SHOW A GENERAL COOLING
- …BSP AND MAS TIGHTEN IN VIEW OF CPI RISKS
- In one line: Decent, but positive momentum is fading.
- In one line: A solid end to Q1 for two-way trade, but fundamental pressure on the THB is building.
- THB strength is no longer a ‘good headache’ for policymakers, but its wobble is no mere correction…
- …We still see a current-account deficit this year, but now at -1%; export leading indicators are tanking.
- A painful war punch to Indian exports; we expect net trade to impose a bigger 1.8pp hit on Q1 GDP.
- In one line: An insurance hike; most probably a “one and done”.
Indian PMIs rebounding on the back of the fragile ceasefire
- In what was a coin-toss meeting, the BSP tightened the target reverse repo rate by 25bp to 4.50%…
- …It raised its CPI forecast to above 4% for 2027; we doubt inflation will be this bad or persistent.
- India’s PMIs rebounded partially in April from the March shock, but the broad trend is still weak.
- In one line: Another month, another hold, as global assumptions are downgraded further.
- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- In one line: Grim end to an already forgetful Q1; glaring war impact on fertiliser output.
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
