- In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
- Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
- Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
- Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
- We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
- We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
- Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
- Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
- Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A bounce of sorts, but ASEAN manufacturing is still shaky
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The April collapse in Philippine imports in context
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
- …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
- We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s decent April IP is not without its flaws; growth is now tanking at the margin…
- …This emerging softness is due to falling consumer non-durables, masked by flying capital goods.
- Blame seasonal noise for Thailand’s biggest trade deficit in over two years, but US demand is sliding.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
