Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- We would choose the SBV if we had to pick the source of a third monetary policy shock this year.
- Malaysian headline and core inflation have been below 2.0% for over a quarter now...
- … And we see little risk of a blow-out to either figure, other than a mismanaged subsidy withdrawal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The China Plus One wave is becoming clear in FDI, with flows into ASEAN outpacing those into China…
- …But Singapore’s huge magnetic pull skews the regional story; Vietnam is a clear winner, otherwise.
- India’s PMIs enjoyed a solid bounce in Q1, pointing to only a minor slowdown in GDP growth from Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect Taiwanese GDP growth to recover this year to 3.4%, after declining to 1.4% in 2023…
- … As the recovery in external demand and tech cycle upswing paper over weaker local demand.
- The CBC is likely to be on hold for all of 2024, even though inflation will probably average less than 2%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth surged in January, but this just sets the stage for a correction in February.
- Indonesian retail sales showed no real pulse in 2023, and negative growth is a real threat for H1.
- The BSP remained on hold last week, but rapidly falling inflation has led to a notable change in tone.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth appears healthier than it actually is, due to the higher COE quota.
- Slowing wage growth in Malaysia will likely take its toll on consumer spending in late H1.
- The nascent turnaround in Philippine demand is just about intact, thanks to a resilient job market.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India interim budget for 2024/25, presented last week, sees a smaller—5.1% of GDP—deficit…
- …But consolidation will no longer benefit from post-Covid catch-up growth and high inflation.
- Investment has be en a real priority in recent years, but the problem of underspend is creeping in.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for January suggest the decline in momentum late last year has run its course.
- Philippine GDP grow th likely slowed to 4.8% in Q4, from 5.9% in Q3; consumption growth is tanking.
- Thai exports were firm in December, but Q4 was largely flat; vice versa for imports, hitting GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PM Srettha’s call for cuts is reasonable, but the BoT now has more reason to hold firm in the short run.
- Domestic demand in the Philippines ended 2023 on a bad note, based on a number of indicators.
- The EuroCham BCI for Vietnam rose minimally in Q4, which doesn’t bode well for Q1 GDP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
- In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
- Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q3 GDP report next Monday should show a leap in growth to 2.9%, from 1.8% in Q2…
- …But this will be due largely to a material drop in imports; domestic demand likely weakened further.
- Retail sales momentum in Indonesia remains lackluster, keeping price-hike expectations at bay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
