Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- The recovery in manufacturing that supported Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia is likely only to improve...
- …Prompting us to raise our 2024 full-year growth forecast to 4.8%, from 4.4% previously.
- Subdued commodity prices weighed on March exports, despite an improvement in electronics.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Below-consensus Q1 GDP growth in Singapore, despite friendly base effects, was no surprise to us...
- … As the uneven recover y in electronics and weaker construction activity continue to weigh on growth.
- The MAS has star ted making noise about easing in Q4, but we remain unconvinced, for now.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth jumped to 8.4% in February, from 1.6% in January…
- …Bolstered by Lunar New Year festive demand falling in February, compared with January in 2023.
- We still expect a gradual moderation in retail sales this year as wage and employment growth slows.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We now see GDP growth in Singapore rising to 2.6% in Q1, after 2.2% in Q4…
- …Supported by the ongoing recovery in external demand and higher tourist arrivals.
- We’ve also upgraded our 2024 growth forecast to 2.2%, from 1.7%, underpinned by healthier trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The China Plus One wave is becoming clear in FDI, with flows into ASEAN outpacing those into China…
- …But Singapore’s huge magnetic pull skews the regional story; Vietnam is a clear winner, otherwise.
- India’s PMIs enjoyed a solid bounce in Q1, pointing to only a minor slowdown in GDP growth from Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian exports disappointed greatly in February, with demand from China faltering again.
- The trade surplus has plunged to a four-year low; consensus for the 2024 current account is too rosy.
- We see Vietnam’s Q1 GDP print falling well short ofexpectations, at 5.4%, down from 6.7% in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth tanked in February on the Lunar New Year lull and weak Chinese demand...
- …While ASEAN’s status as an export destination improved, benefiting from firms’ China+1 strategy.
- Existing labour-market tightness should make further services disinflation a lengthy process.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect Taiwanese GDP growth to recover this year to 3.4%, after declining to 1.4% in 2023…
- … As the recovery in external demand and tech cycle upswing paper over weaker local demand.
- The CBC is likely to be on hold for all of 2024, even though inflation will probably average less than 2%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp drop in Singaporean inflation, to 2.9% from 3.7%, comes as no surprise to us…
- … As a combination of friendly base effects, lower COE prices and rebates drags on the headline.
- Malaysian core disinflation is likely to continue as lab our-market tightness unwinds.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth surged in January, but this just sets the stage for a correction in February.
- Indonesian retail sales showed no real pulse in 2023, and negative growth is a real threat for H1.
- The BSP remained on hold last week, but rapidly falling inflation has led to a notable change in tone.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth appears healthier than it actually is, due to the higher COE quota.
- Slowing wage growth in Malaysia will likely take its toll on consumer spending in late H1.
- The nascent turnaround in Philippine demand is just about intact, thanks to a resilient job market.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India interim budget for 2024/25, presented last week, sees a smaller—5.1% of GDP—deficit…
- …But consolidation will no longer benefit from post-Covid catch-up growth and high inflation.
- Investment has be en a real priority in recent years, but the problem of underspend is creeping in.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for January suggest the decline in momentum late last year has run its course.
- Philippine GDP grow th likely slowed to 4.8% in Q4, from 5.9% in Q3; consumption growth is tanking.
- Thai exports were firm in December, but Q4 was largely flat; vice versa for imports, hitting GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian GDP growth surprised to the downside in 2023, hurt by a tough year for manufacturing...
- ...But a recovery within the sector is likely to power a broader upturn in economic activity this year.
- Export growth plummeted in December, as re-exports dragged on the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PM Srettha’s call for cuts is reasonable, but the BoT now has more reason to hold firm in the short run.
- Domestic demand in the Philippines ended 2023 on a bad note, based on a number of indicators.
- The EuroCham BCI for Vietnam rose minimally in Q4, which doesn’t bode well for Q1 GDP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
- In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
- Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November won’t last long, with demand still deteriorating…
- …Export-oriented countries continue to cause the most misery; supply-side issues are re-emerging.
We no longer expect BI to start cutting this month, following the upside surprise in
- November CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
