Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)
- The recovery in manufacturing that supported Q1 GDP growth in Malaysia is likely only to improve...
- …Prompting us to raise our 2024 full-year growth forecast to 4.8%, from 4.4% previously.
- Subdued commodity prices weighed on March exports, despite an improvement in electronics.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Below-consensus Q1 GDP growth in Singapore, despite friendly base effects, was no surprise to us...
- … As the uneven recover y in electronics and weaker construction activity continue to weigh on growth.
- The MAS has star ted making noise about easing in Q4, but we remain unconvinced, for now.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth jumped to 8.4% in February, from 1.6% in January…
- …Bolstered by Lunar New Year festive demand falling in February, compared with January in 2023.
- We still expect a gradual moderation in retail sales this year as wage and employment growth slows.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We now see GDP growth in Singapore rising to 2.6% in Q1, after 2.2% in Q4…
- …Supported by the ongoing recovery in external demand and higher tourist arrivals.
- We’ve also upgraded our 2024 growth forecast to 2.2%, from 1.7%, underpinned by healthier trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian exports disappointed greatly in February, with demand from China faltering again.
- The trade surplus has plunged to a four-year low; consensus for the 2024 current account is too rosy.
- We see Vietnam’s Q1 GDP print falling well short ofexpectations, at 5.4%, down from 6.7% in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth tanked in February on the Lunar New Year lull and weak Chinese demand...
- …While ASEAN’s status as an export destination improved, benefiting from firms’ China+1 strategy.
- Existing labour-market tightness should make further services disinflation a lengthy process.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp drop in Singaporean inflation, to 2.9% from 3.7%, comes as no surprise to us…
- … As a combination of friendly base effects, lower COE prices and rebates drags on the headline.
- Malaysian core disinflation is likely to continue as lab our-market tightness unwinds.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian GDP growth surprised to the downside in 2023, hurt by a tough year for manufacturing...
- ...But a recovery within the sector is likely to power a broader upturn in economic activity this year.
- Export growth plummeted in December, as re-exports dragged on the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
- …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
- The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Singapore is likely to remain elevated at 4.1% next year, but down from 5.0% in 2023...
- ...As the GST hike, higher regulated transport and commodity prices fuel inflationary pressures.
- Thankfully, COE prices—a key driver of inflation this year—are likely to moderate from H2 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
