Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Inflation in Singapore spikes on base effects and record COEs
- Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
- …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
- The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
- Inflation in Singapore is likely to remain elevated at 4.1% next year, but down from 5.0% in 2023...
- ...As the GST hike, higher regulated transport and commodity prices fuel inflationary pressures.
- Thankfully, COE prices—a key driver of inflation this year—are likely to moderate from H2 2024.
- The BNM maintains the overnight policy rate at 3.00% at its November meeting...
- ...As it prioritised supporting domestic demand while using FX intervention to support the MYR.
- We expect the BNM to hold rates steady for most of 2024, cutting rates only once by 25bp in Q4.
- In one line: The BNM keeps the OPR accommodative, eyeing other instruments to manage MYR weakness.
Rise in transport inflation ends disinflationary run in Singapore
The domestic-oriented services sector powers Q3 Malaysian GDP growth
Headline CPI benefits from food disinflation but core inflation remains sticky
- Q3 GDP growth in Malaysia rose to 3.3% year-over- year, from 2.9% in Q2...
- ...As services growth did the heavy lifting, while manufacturing growth flat-lined on weak exports.
- Sticky core inflation and a weakening MYR will likely motivate the BNM to hike by 25bp in November.
Malaysian export growth benefits from recovery in electronics sector
- Malaysian export growth improved to -13.7% year- over-year in September from -18.7% in August...
- ...As re-exports recovered following the plunge in August and electronics exports surged.
- The recovery is likely to continue, bolstered by higher commodity prices and electronics exports.
Singaporean NODX growth continues to pick up momentum
- The recovery in Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth continues in September ...
- ...As friendlier base effects and improving prospects in the electronics sector pick up steam.
- With these factors gathering strength, we expect export growth to increase further in Q4.
Singaporean manufacturing manages to crawl out of a technical recession in Q3
The MAS adopts wait-and-see, as upside and downside risks to growth and inflation
- Q3 GDP growth in Singapore rose to 0.7% year over- year, from 0.5% in Q2…
- …The manufacturing sector showed signs of a recovery, while service sector growth slowed.
- The MAS will pause as it balances inflationary risks with sluggish economic activity.
- Malaysian retail sales rose to a record high of MYR60.5B in August, from MYR59.7B in July...
- ...Powered by increased spending across the board, with the exception of IT equipment.
- Retail sales growth will likely continue to rise gradually towards its pre-pandemic trend.
Retail sales growth should benefit from friendly base effects until the end of 2023
- The pace of disinflation in Singapore slowed in August, with transport inflation picking up...
- ...As fuel deflation ended, and as record-high COE prices drove up private transportation costs.
- A resumption of faster disinflation is unlikely, as friendly base effects lift and as energy prices rise.