Inflation in Singapore spikes on base effects and record COEs
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
- …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
- The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Singapore is likely to remain elevated at 4.1% next year, but down from 5.0% in 2023...
- ...As the GST hike, higher regulated transport and commodity prices fuel inflationary pressures.
- Thankfully, COE prices—a key driver of inflation this year—are likely to moderate from H2 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM maintains the overnight policy rate at 3.00% at its November meeting...
- ...As it prioritised supporting domestic demand while using FX intervention to support the MYR.
- We expect the BNM to hold rates steady for most of 2024, cutting rates only once by 25bp in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The BNM keeps the OPR accommodative, eyeing other instruments to manage MYR weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Rise in transport inflation ends disinflationary run in Singapore
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The domestic-oriented services sector powers Q3 Malaysian GDP growth
Headline CPI benefits from food disinflation but core inflation remains sticky
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q3 GDP growth in Malaysia rose to 3.3% year-over- year, from 2.9% in Q2...
- ...As services growth did the heavy lifting, while manufacturing growth flat-lined on weak exports.
- Sticky core inflation and a weakening MYR will likely motivate the BNM to hike by 25bp in November.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian export growth benefits from recovery in electronics sector
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth improved to -13.7% year- over-year in September from -18.7% in August...
- ...As re-exports recovered following the plunge in August and electronics exports surged.
- The recovery is likely to continue, bolstered by higher commodity prices and electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean NODX growth continues to pick up momentum
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The recovery in Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth continues in September ...
- ...As friendlier base effects and improving prospects in the electronics sector pick up steam.
- With these factors gathering strength, we expect export growth to increase further in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean manufacturing manages to crawl out of a technical recession in Q3
The MAS adopts wait-and-see, as upside and downside risks to growth and inflation
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q3 GDP growth in Singapore rose to 0.7% year over- year, from 0.5% in Q2…
- …The manufacturing sector showed signs of a recovery, while service sector growth slowed.
- The MAS will pause as it balances inflationary risks with sluggish economic activity.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales rose to a record high of MYR60.5B in August, from MYR59.7B in July...
- ...Powered by increased spending across the board, with the exception of IT equipment.
- Retail sales growth will likely continue to rise gradually towards its pre-pandemic trend.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Retail sales growth should benefit from friendly base effects until the end of 2023
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The pace of disinflation in Singapore slowed in August, with transport inflation picking up...
- ...As fuel deflation ended, and as record-high COE prices drove up private transportation costs.
- A resumption of faster disinflation is unlikely, as friendly base effects lift and as energy prices rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
