6 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Two things stood out in Indonesia's Q2 surprise: one clear, one hidden

• Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
• …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
• The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

4 August 2025 Emerging Respite for ASEAN factories, but road ahead set to stay bumpy

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
• …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.

1 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's Q2 GDP bolstered by strong exports, but that's about it

• Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
• …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
• Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 July 2025

Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June

July 2025 Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING

• …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES

31 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Big catch-up themes in PH two-way trade; net exports key to Q2 GDP

• Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
• …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
• Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, June

• In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.

29 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Three quick takeaways from India's softer-than-expected June IP print

• Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
• Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
• …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.

28 July 2025 Emerging Asia Actions now speaking louder than words, assuaging ID fiscal worries

• Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
• …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
• The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 July 2025

PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong

25 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's PMIs continue to recover, but downside risk to 2026 building

• India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
• They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
• Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.

24 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's retail sales shrink in Q2: downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call

• Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
• This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
• Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.

23 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian core IP finally found its feet in Q2, but short-term risks prevail

• Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
• …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
• Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, June

• In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.

21 July 2025 Emerging Asia Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying

• Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
• Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
• Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.

17 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's surprise July cut to be followed by at least two more by year-end

• Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a  hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
• …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
• Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

16 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More cuts to our already-soft inflation forecasts for India

• India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
• …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
• We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.