Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Thailand’s Q4 GDP report was poor, with growth inching up to 1.7%, from 1.4% in Q3.
- Net trade dealt a big blow to quarterly growth; the low-hanging fruit from the tourism recovery is over.
- Consumption ground to a halt, moving closer to the monthly data, which have been poor for some time.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Prabowo Subianto looks to have won by a landslide in Indonesia, removing the need for a run-off.
- The trade surplus fell sharply in January; its support for the rupiah will be a lot less robust in 2024.
- The recovery in export growth is stumbling, with commodities lifeless and China still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian IP stuttered at the end of last year, implying no repeat in Q4 GDP of manufacturing’s heroics.
- The RAI’s retail sales data remain weak, pointing to a continuation of below-par consumption growth.
- We’ll be raising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to about 5.5%, still well below the 6%-plus consensus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’ve raised our 2024 average CPI forecast in India to 4.2%, in the wake of January’s upside surprise.
- Crucially, the core rate is still falling, showing the headline the way down, as food inflation wanes...
- ...We see no clash between falling core and ‘brisk’ GDP; RBI surveys back our suspicion of the latter.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s MPC voted 5-to-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.50%, but Mr. Varma’s dissent is no real surprise.
- We still expect a Q2 cut; Q4 GDP likely will fall short of the MPC’s forecast and 4% inflation is imminent.
- The BoT stood pat on Wednesday, as expected, but telegraphed a big cut to its 2024 growth forecast.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation is now below the mid-point of the BSP’s target range, bolstering our Q2 cut call.
- The Bank of Thailand will stand pat today, but the MPC’s pessimistic CPI views no longer hold water.
- We’re still waiting on the new weights for Indonesian CPI, but we continue to expect cuts to start in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MAS maintained the appreciative slope of its S$NEER policy band at its January meeting...
- ...As it reiterated the current elevated core inflation outlook, while downplaying growth concerns.
- We see the MAS digging in to rein in core inflation, maintaining the policy band for the rest of 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM remained on hold at its January meeting, keeping its policy rate at 3.00%...
- ...Even though core and headline inflation are falling; significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook.
- The pace and strength of the recovery in export growth should determine the BNM’s next move .
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean inflation picked up unexpectedly in December to 3.7%, from 3.6% in November...
- ...As a rise in transport and services inflation offset the impact from continued food disinflation.
- With inflation uncomfortably high, while the growth outlook remains weak, the MAS is likely to hold.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Malaysia cooled last year, dropping to 2.5%, from 3.4% in 2022...
- ...Helped by fuel deflation in early 2023, while food disinflation gathered strength in Q4.
- The BNM is likely to stay put at tomorrow’s meeting, with inflation below its pre-pandemic average.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth fell into the red in December, as we predicted...
- ...With support to the headline from volatile categories unwinding, and electronics weakening.
- Sticking to our Q2 call for BI rate cuts; policy easing has started in less urgent conditions in the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net trade will likely shave 0.4pp off Indonesia's Q4 GDP growth, supporting our soft 4.7% forecast...
- ...But the underlying trends are positive; import base effects and stalling tourism will be to blame.
- India’s trade gap has narrowed swiftly from the record low in October; we examine the main drivers.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India rose modestly in December, to 5.7%, on the back of a—final—leap in food inflation.
- The core inflation picture keeps improving; ultimately this will dictate the path of the headline.
- The year-long upswing in industrial production growth is over, leaving aside the acute Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales growth increased to 4.4% in November, from 3.9% in October...
- ...Supported by friendlier base effects and seasonal spending, which offset moderating price growth.
- We expect retail sales growth to stabilise around 5-to-6% this year, as employment growth wanes.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
