- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S ROSY GDP HEADLINES REMAIN A FARCE
- ...BOT FINALLY PAUSES, WHILE BSP’S HEAD IS M.I.A.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The next move is a cut, and could come as early as Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The seven-month bout of WPI deflation in India comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
- … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
- Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI still isn’t showing any appetite for normalisation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI is still sounding cautiously hawkish, due to food inflation risk ; April is now the likely earliest cut .
- In our view, its CPI forecasts are too pessimistic, while its outlook on growth is overly optimistic.
- Beware, the number of unemployed workers in the Philippines has now risen for two straight quarters.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia