Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
- …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.
- In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.
Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June
BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
- Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
- …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
- The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.
PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
- In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.
- Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
- Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
- Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.
- Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
- …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
- Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
