China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes
In one line: Japan’s export show strain from tariffs, with cars and steel leading declines.
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound in August, monthly momentum firms despite fading US front-loading.
In one line: Japan Q2 GDP: Net trade and business investment lift growth; likely to bolster BoJ’s determination to hike.
In one line: China’s producer prices continue to fall amid involution and weak demand
In one line: China’s CPI stays flat in July as disinflation pressure lingers on weak demand
In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
- China exports slowed for third successive month in August, dragged down by low-tech shipments.
- US was largest drag on growth; monthly exports fell 12.8% seasonally adjusted, offsetting ASEAN's gains.
- Export growth is set to slow in H2 on the back of a weaker US economy and less stockpiling.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI points to job risks after court ruling on social security contributions
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
In one line: Tokyo inflation fall mainly due to energy subsidies
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
China's industrial profits still falling in July
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
In one line: Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
