The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Disappointing credit data point to undercooked domestic demand, despite fiscal stimulus
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China consumer prices slow as producer deflation deepens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Producer price deflation deepens further, thanks to excess capacity
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
- Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
- The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
- A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
- Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China forex reserves rose more than expected in March, thanks to stronger trade surplus and bond inflows.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
- Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
- We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
- Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
- But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
