China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
- The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
- The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
- Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
- It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April PMIs reveal the initial hit from the tariff stand-off, with steep drops in new export orders.
- Neither the US nor China appears ready to relent at this stage, so further weakness lies ahead.
- China is rolling out an eclectic set of growth-support measures, but won’t go for mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth relied heavily on net exports, highlighting the need to boost domestic demand.
- But new residential-property sales have waned this year, notably in oversupplied markets.
- Policymakers will prioritise job creation by supporting consumer services and construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 growth was already cooling from the Q4 high; hence March’s additional fiscal stimulus.
- Front-loading effects also boosted March exports and industrial output, but this should prove fleeting.
- China will need to stoke domestic demand further, as exports risk hitting a wall in the coming quarters.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The March CKGSB index reports reviving Chinese business confidence, despite the imminent trade war.
- Funding conditions have improved thanks to policy support, though profits are under pressure.
- Robust government-bond issuance lifted broad credit growth in March; M1’s rise is somewhat encouraging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China is unlikely to back down openly because of Mr. Xi’s personality and the country’s historical context.
- The State Council published a white paper outlining the official stance on Sino-US trade frictions.
- China will need to worry about second-order retaliation from the US via Vietnam and Mexico.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both the US and China seem to have dug in, making a short-term cessation of trade-war hostilities unlikely.
- More escalation is likely on the cards, but this could be the crisis that prompts China to boost consumption.
- The PBoC has started allowing RMB depreciation as part of the response, but it must tread carefully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China and the US are posturing as the trade war escalates and markets plunge.
- China’s National Team appears to be intervening, with limited success, to soften the A-share market dive.
- The PBoC is likely to cut the RRR soon to boost confidence; government-bond issuance will speed up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
- …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
- Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export growth accelerated in March, but due to post-holiday effects and front-loading or orders.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped in March, despite a robust new export order reading.
- Firms are worried about tariff hikes and political risks, with the impeachment ruling due on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s official March PMIs showed lasting, though waning, stimulus support for activity.
- The manufacturing index is still above 50, but sentiment slipped ahead of likely US tariff hikes today.
- Construction new orders dived, raising questions about local-government investment activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China appears to be prioritising RMB stability over rate cuts, after decent activity data at the start of the year.
- Industrial profits saw tangible improvements in the first two months, led by rising manufacturing demand.
- The stimulus-led profit growth recovery in China will face significant headwinds from rising trade tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean consumer sentiment faltered again in March, due to worries about growth and job prospects.
- Business sentiment is faring better, at least in the tech sector; profitability is still under pressure, however.
- WDA 20-day exports rebounded in March, thanks to chip exports reviving after the Lunar New Year holiday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to persist with two more rate hikes this year, despite early warning signals about growth.
- Japanese business sentiment sank to its lowest since January 2021 in yesterday’s composite flash PMI.
- Broadening food inflation is likely to prop up consumer inflation, pointing towards the risk of stagflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, citing the evolving external situation as a new risk.
- The Bank considers developments in domestic wages and prices are in line with it achieving its policy target.
- We continue to expect two more hikes in 2025, taking rates to 1%, with the next rise in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s key activity data for the first two months of 2025 beat market expectations on all fronts.
- Local governments have stepped up investment, while manufacturing is roaring ahead.
- But consumption spending is making only gradual progress; funding is key to the new plan.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
