China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, December

In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment

16 January 2026 China+ Monitor PBoC focusing on targeted support to further strategic goals

• The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
• We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
• Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 January 2026: Wage growth falls, but regular pay steady

In one line: BoJ won't be fazed by slowing headline wage growth, as regular pay growth is relatively steady

8 January 2026 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves on a rising trend, despite trade frictions

• China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
• The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
• Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 January 2026: RatingDog services points to slower demand

In one line: Sentiment rose, despite slowing demand

5 January 2026 China+ Monitor China's rosier December PMIs reflect mainly short-term factors

• China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
• The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
• Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.