China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
- China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
- Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
- Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.
Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
- Chinese private-firm sentiment is holding up reasonably well, despite the tariff chaos.
- Domestic demand appears resilient, albeit far from robust, in the May PMIs.
- The current targeted policy approach is working, so don’t expect any mega-stimulus.
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
