China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
- The BoK stays put, but changing voting pattern hints at future policy shift
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese manufacturing activity hit by fading demand and supply
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK on hold, but hinting at future easing; Japan's flash PMIs indicate continued sluggishness
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The two Japanese flash PMIs point to a flagging recovery, despite long-term optimism.
- A drop in service sector new export orders is a warning sign for the tourism sector.
- January national CPI, due Monday, will likely be sub- 2%, adding to the case for the BoJ to delay a rate rise.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Surprise 25bp cut to five-year LPR unlikely enough to ensure rapid property market rebound; one-year LPR on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Surprise 25bp cut to five-year LPR unlikely enough to ensure rapid property market rebound; one-year LPR on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
- ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
- China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate on hold yesterday but is likely to cut it in Q2, as part of targeted support .
- Fiscal stimulus funds are likely to boost business cash flow in selected parts of the economy in H1.
- Urban real estate financing mechanisms promise to bring real money for project completions.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s social financing growth slowed a notch in January, due to less government-bond issuance.
- The jump in January net long-term new household loans is probably a blip; new-home sales are weak.
- The increase in M1 growth is a likely sign of stimulus funds improving business cash flow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
M1 and credit growth beat expectations, thanks to stimulus
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufactured goods producer price decline stems partly from industrial spare capacity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's inflation data point to still-soft domestic demand, after filtering out the holiday noise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth ticks up slightly in approach to spring talks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese nominal wage growth rose slightly in December but remains well below earlier highs..
- The continued decline in real wages, albeit easing, is dragging down real household spending.
- Disappointing tourism wages raise questions about the hoped-for transition to demand-push inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export grow th remains resilient on a WDA basis, driven by surging microchip exports.
- Shipments to the US are still seeing strong growth, while Chinese demand is recovering.
- The recovery in Korean exports is expected to continue and hinges on the semiconductor upturn.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin index lifted by capital goods output and intermediate product exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI still relatively strong
Korean manufacturers buoyed by new product launches, high-end chip exports
Japan PMI still weak
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI is still outperforming the official index.
- Rising investment goods output probably anticipates stimulus effects after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The Caixin services PMI should see a holiday bump, despite consumer caution over costly purchases.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing production steams ahead of new orders, as firms restock in anticipation of higher sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Official manufacturing PMI indicates restocking
Holiday effect provides modest lift to services activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
