Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
Layoffs hit 12-week high, but remain below cycle peaks, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
- October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
- PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession
- EUROZONE- Italy Facing a Tough Year-End Whether in Recession or Not
- U.K. - Households Will Put GDP Back on its Rising Path in Q4
- CHINA+ - Slowing Capital Outflows Ease Pressure on China’s Foreign Reserves
- EM ASIA - Watch Out for a Big Payback in India’s Q3 GDP Report
- LATAM - Banxico Finally Blinks, Opening the Door to Rate Cuts Pretty Soon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
The (almost) final nail in the coffin of the Fed's rate hike optionality
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Markets have broken decisively from the Fed; inves- tors no longer believe in rate hike optionality.
- Core CPI inflation ex-rents is now just 2.0% and fall- ing, and the pace of rent increases will slow sharply.
- We’re sticking to our call for the first easing in March, but we doubt Chair Powell will quickly declare victory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- October’s core CPI probably rose 0.4%, but the risks are biased to the downside.
- Hotel room rates, health insurance and new vehicle prices all seem likely to have pushed up the core.
- Our medium-term optimism remains, but disinflation won’t proceed in a neat straight line every month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- House Republicans are yet to coalesce around a funding plan that could pass the Senate…
- …That might change, but right now a government shutdown starting at midnight Friday looks likely.
- The spike in inflation expectations will reverse, but Fed policymakers will be unhappy in the meantime.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Nudging back up, but no sustained increase visible on the near horizon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The Labor Market is Softening, but it is not Rolling Over
- EUROZONE - Should Bunds be at 3% or Higher? The Term Premium Says Yes
- U.K. - The MPC Will Pivot Quickly; Stable Rates in 2024 Are Not Our Base Case
- CHINA+ - China’s Industrial Profits Improve Further Stoking Investment Demand
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s Narrow Q3 GDP Miss Worse Than It Looks
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP Still Resilient in Q3, but Growth Momentum Set to Ease
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
- Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
- ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
