Pantheon Publications

17 October 2023 UK Monitor Will Inventory Rundowns by Businesses Trigger Recession?

• Stock levels are higher than in the late 2010s, despite supply chain improvement and the jump in Bank Rate.
• Surveys, however, indicate businesses think stocks levels are broadly adequate given current demand.
• Running-down stocks of imported goods by definition will leave GDP unscathed; a recession isn’t likely.

Samuel TombsUK

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, August 2023

In one line: Did net trade in goods boost GDP in Q3?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, September

• In one line: Upstream core deflation is clearly bottoming out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 OCTOBER 2023: The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold for now

• The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold for now; a cut is likely by year-end

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 October 2023

The bleeding in Indonesian exports stopped, somewhat, in Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October

Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here, now that gas prices are falling.

US

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September

• In one line: An unwelcome sharp consolidation of the deficit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August 2023

In one line: Not enough for output to have avoided a fifth straight quarterly decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, September 2023

In one line: We still think the fall in the headline will resume soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+ Datanote: PM Datanote: PPI, China, September

• Producer price deflation abates, as International energy and materials prices warm up

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 13 OCTOBER 2023: Consumer inflation remains dull

• China's dull consumer inflation reflects a gentle demand recovery

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 October 2023

Singaporean manufacturing manages to crawl out of a technical recession in Q3
The MAS adopts wait-and-see, as upside and downside risks to growth and inflation

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 October 2023 US Monitor Higher for Longer is not Higher Forever; the Distinction Matters

• Higher for longer reflects stronger trend growth, but the interest rate cycle has not been abolished…
• …The next substantial move in rates will be to the downside, and it will be faster than the Fed expects.
• Consumers are unhappy, but cheaper gasoline will cheer them up, provided stocks don’t tank.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 October 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Held Steady in September, Below the MPC's Forecast

• The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 6.7% in September, undershooting the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
• BRC and Eurozone data suggest food and core goods CPI inflation fell further, but services inflation likely rose...
• ...Fees for private schools and nurseries probably increased more in September than a year ago.

Samuel TombsUK

16 October 2023 Eurozone Monitor Upcoming Swiss Election Will Not Move the Needle for the Economy

• Swiss elections will be held at the end of this week; polls suggest a slight shift to the right...
• ...The outlook for fiscal policy and, by extension, GDP will be unchanged regardless.
• EZ headline inflation for September may be revised up a touch but it still fell sharply.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 October 2023 China+ Monitor Credit Data Reveals China's Targeted Stimulus Is Enough, for Now

• Rapid local-government bond issuance supported China’s credit growth in September.
• Net household loans jumped, largely thanks to reduced existing-mortgage repayments.
• Targeted stimulus is doing enough to stabilise growth, making a switch to mega-stimulus unlikely.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 October 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Unconvinced Singaporean Manufacturing Is Out of the Woods

• Q3 GDP growth in Singapore rose to 0.7% year over- year, from 0.5% in Q2…
• …The manufacturing sector showed signs of a recovery, while service sector growth slowed.
• The MAS will pause as it balances inflationary risks with sluggish economic activity.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 October 2023 LatAm Monitor Minutes Indicate No Rate Cuts from Banxico in the Short Term

• Banxico’s Board has become more cautious about when to start the normalization cycle.
• We still see a small chance of a rate cut in December, but recent global events are a constraint.
• The industrial report highlights that not all is rosy in the Mexican economy; manufacturing is struggling.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America