Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Samuel Tombs
- In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.
Samuel TombsUK
- Momentum in nominal GDP has meant that public borrowing has undershot the OBR’s forecast this year...
- ...But, in the medium term, the outlook for higher debt interest payments will dominate the tax receipts windfall.
- Mr. Hunt will cross his fingers and hope for scope to cut taxes in the Budget, rather than risk markets’ ire this time.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a 0.2% month-to-month decline in GDP in September, below the no-change consensus.
- Warmer-than-usual weather hit output in the retail and energy-supply sectors; car sales likely plunged too.
- Strikes in the health sector were more disruptive than in August but look set to moderate in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s forecasts imply it doesn’t expect to cut Bank Rate next year, even as modestly as markets expect...
- ...But Mr. Bailey downplayed the forecasts, and the pledge tokeeprates“restrictive” stillleavesroomforcuts.
- We expect services CPI inflation in Q4 to undershoot the MPC’s forecast, easing concerns about upside risks.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: New forecasts signal no rate cuts in 2024, but the MPC won’t be bound by them.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The destocking process which is weighing on manufacturing output has further to run.
Samuel TombsUK
- The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
- Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
- Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.
Samuel TombsUK
