In one line: Consistent with falling GDP in Q4, despite rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: French GDP is headed for a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to Q4 for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession
- EUROZONE- Italy Facing a Tough Year-End Whether in Recession or Not
- U.K. - Households Will Put GDP Back on its Rising Path in Q4
- CHINA+ - Slowing Capital Outflows Ease Pressure on China’s Foreign Reserves
- EM ASIA - Watch Out for a Big Payback in India’s Q3 GDP Report
- LATAM - Banxico Finally Blinks, Opening the Door to Rate Cuts Pretty Soon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation, at the headline level, remains fully on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Labor Market is Softening, but it is not Rolling Over
- EUROZONE - Should Bunds be at 3% or Higher? The Term Premium Says Yes
- U.K. - The MPC Will Pivot Quickly; Stable Rates in 2024 Are Not Our Base Case
- CHINA+ - China’s Industrial Profits Improve Further Stoking Investment Demand
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s Narrow Q3 GDP Miss Worse Than It Looks
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP Still Resilient in Q3, but Growth Momentum Set to Ease
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: The slowdown is becoming broad-based.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No end in sight for the recession in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The BNM keeps the OPR accommodative, eyeing other instruments to manage MYR weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Unemployment Likely will Rise even if Job Gains Remain Close to 200K
- EUROZONE- A Dovish ECB, Despite No Talk of Rate Cuts Next Year
- U.K. - MPC Won’t Hint at 2024 Rate Cuts Just Yet, Despite Data Surprises
- CHINA+ - More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
- EM ASIA - BSP’s Off-Cycle Rate Hike a Rash Move; Expect No More This Quarter
- LATAM - We Still Expect Brazil’s Selic Rate to Be Cut to Around 7% Next Year
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
