Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, September 2023

In one line: Down for the second straight quarter.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Argentina Elections, 2023

• In one line:  Milei victory presages radical change in Argentina; but a highly fragmented Congress will be a big hurdle.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q3, 2023

• In one line: A decent Q3, but more interest rate cuts are needed.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 November 2023 US Monitor Homebase Data Signal a Clear Rebound in November Payrolls

• The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
• ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
• No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

21 November 2023 LatAm Monitor Milei's Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?

• Libertarian Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidential election; the less bad option for the battered country.
• Argentina’s prospects will improve if Congress allows Milei to ‘take a hacksaw’ to the state.
• Brazil’s economy struggled in Q3, opening the door to bigger rate cuts if fiscal pragmatism prevails.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster

• GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
• ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
• We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 November 2023 China+ Monitor China Holds Lending Rates Steady, Relying Instead on Fiscal Support

• China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged in November, in line with the MLF rate last week.
• Policymakers are seemingly using fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, thus allowing confidence to rebuild.
• Monetary policy will probably continue to play an accommodative role—behind fiscal policy—in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 November 2023 UK Monitor Consumer Prices Have Almost Fully Adjusted to Higher Energy Prices

• On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
• Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
• ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.

Samuel TombsUK

21 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Negotiated Wage Growth Likely Eased in Q3, but Not by Much

• Today’s negotiated wage figures likely will show that wage growth eased in Q3, but only marginally.
• Construction output edged up in September; survey data suggest this was reversed in October...
• ...We think the sector will be a drag on growth again in Q4; luckily it accounts for only 5% of EZ GDP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Property Developers Continue to Flounder

• China’s residential market flagged again in October, despite the new homebuyer incentives since August.
• Developer funding shows little sign of turning around, as worries over debt issues are prevailing.
• The reported affordable-housing programme likely will fall short of the shantytown redevelopment boost.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, November

• China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 NOVEMBER 2023: Lending rates on hold

• China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 20 November 2023

A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, October

The recovery in construction activity is stalling, for now.

US

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, September 2023

In one line: Solid, but the headline likely will roll over soon. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October

• In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes. 

UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 November 2023

Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 November 2023 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Economy Avoids a Technical Recession, Just

• Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
• Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
• Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America